Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Assessing the Robustness of Demographic Projections in OECD Countries

Contents:

Author Info

  • Frédéric Gonand

Abstract

This paper aims at assessing the robustness of demographic projections to different assumptions on mortality, fertility and migration. It builds on a small-scale simulation model for 23 OECD countries, which reproduces closely national projections under similar demographic assumptions. Up to 2020, projections are relatively robust to alternative hypothesis. However, uncertainty about future longevity gains and fertility rates account for a large range of results for dependency ratios by 2050. Eventually, a long lasting surge in fertility may not be enough to fully offset the impact on dependency ratio of increases in longevity in line with past trends (i.e., around two years every decade). Sensibilité des projections démographiques dans les pays de l'OCDE : Une évaluation Ce document évalue la sensibilité des projections démographiques à différentes hypothèses de mortalité, de natalité et d’immigration. Un modèle simplifié de simulation démographique est construit pour 23 pays de l’OCDE qui permet de reproduire fidèlement les projections des Etats membres à hypothèses identiques. A l’horizon 2020, les projections démographiques seraient assez robustes à leurs hypothèses. A l’horizon 2050, la difficulté à prévoir les évolutions futures de l’espérance de vie et de la natalité introduit une incertitude importante quant au niveau du ratio de dépendance. Enfin, l’effet sur le ratio de dépendance lié à un redressement durable du taux de fertilité ne compenserait pas l’impact d’une poursuite des gains d’espérance de vie selon leur rythme passé (i.e., de deux années par décade).

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/675771743585
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 464.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 07 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:464-en

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2 rue Andre Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16
Phone: 33-(0)-1-45 24 82 00
Fax: 33-(0)-1-45 24 85 00
Email:
Web page: http://www.oecd.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: longevity; demographic simulations; dependency ratio; simulations démographiques; ratio de dépendance; espérance de vie;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Rossana Merola & Douglas Sutherland, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 3. Long-Run Projections and Fiscal Gap Calculations," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 934, OECD Publishing.
  2. Frederic Gonand, 2014. "Dynamic Impacts on Growth and Intergenerational Effects of Energy Transition in a Time of Fiscal Consolidation," Working Papers 1401, Chaire Economie du Climat.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:464-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.