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Accounting for Russia's Post-Crisis Growth

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  • Rudiger Ahrend

Abstract

This paper provides an in depth analysis of Russia’s recent growth, with a view to understanding the prospects for its continuation. It examines in detail the main drivers of growth, as well as the main developments and policies that have been underlying it. A key finding is that the role of the oil sector, and particularly privately owned oil companies, has been vastly more important in driving economic growth since 2001 than most analyses have recognised. The oil sector’s contribution to growth has hitherto been severely underestimated as official data do not account for transfer pricing and thus fail to reflect fully the importance of the hydrocarbon sector in the Russian economy. The paper further argues that prudent postcrisis fiscal policy, by balancing the federal budget over the oil-price cycle, has also been essential for creating a macroeconomic environment conducive to strong growth. Looking forward, it is argued that - given its economic structure - Russia is bound to ... Bilan de la croissance après la crise en Russie Cet article analyse en profondeur la croissance économique récente en Russie afin de comprendre les perspectives de sa continuité. L’article examine en détail les principaux moteurs de la croissance, ainsi que les principales évolutions et politiques sous-jacentes. Un des principaux résultats est que le rôle du secteur pétrolier, en particulier les compagnies pétrolières privées, a été considérablement plus important comme moteur de la croissance depuis 2001 que ne l’ont constaté la plupart des analystes. La contribution à la croissance du secteur pétrolier a jusqu’à présent été grandement sous-estimée à cause des données officielles qui ne prennent pas en compte l’utilisation des prix de transfert, et par conséquent ne reflètent pas entièrement l’importance du secteur des hydrocarbures dans l’économie russe. Cet article fait également le point sur la politique budgétaire prudente d’après la crise, qui en gardant le budget fédéral équilibré sur l’ensemble du cycle des cours ...

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 404.

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Date of creation: 30 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:404-en

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Keywords: transition; gas; capital flight; natural resources; economic growth; monetary policy; resource curse; property rights; Russia; diversification; fiscal policy; real exchange rates; dutch disease; oil; pétrole; diversification; politique monétaire; transition; malédiction des ressources; droit de propriété; croissance économique; politique budgétaire; taux de change réel; fuite des capitaux; ressources naturelles; syndrome néerlandais; gaz; Russie;

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Cited by:
  1. Wojciech W Charemza & Svetlana Makarova, 2006. "Ex ante Dynamics of Real Effects of Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence for Poland and Russia, 2001–2003," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 458-479, September.
  2. Brigitte Granville & Judith Shapiro, 2008. "Scratch a Would-Be Planner: Robbins, Neoclassical Economics and the End of Socialism," Working Papers 11, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Business and Management, Centre for Globalisation Research.
  3. Fredrik Wilhelmsson & Konstantin Kozlov, 2007. "Exports and productivity of Russian firms: in search of causality," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 361-385, December.
  4. World Bank, 2005. "Belarus : Window of Opportunity to Enhance Competitiveness and Sustain Economic Growth, A Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for the Republic of Belarus, Volume 1, Main Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8353, The World Bank.

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