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• Rudiger Ahrend

This paper provides an in depth analysis of Russia’s recent growth, with a view to understanding the prospects for its continuation. It examines in detail the main drivers of growth, as well as the main developments and policies that have been underlying it. A key finding is that the role of the oil sector, and particularly privately owned oil companies, has been vastly more important in driving economic growth since 2001 than most analyses have recognised. The oil sector’s contribution to growth has hitherto been severely underestimated as official data do not account for transfer pricing and thus fail to reflect fully the importance of the hydrocarbon sector in the Russian economy. The paper further argues that prudent postcrisis fiscal policy, by balancing the federal budget over the oil-price cycle, has also been essential for creating a macroeconomic environment conducive to strong growth. Looking forward, it is argued that - given its economic structure - Russia is bound to ...

Bilan de la croissance après la crise en Russie

Cet article analyse en profondeur la croissance économique récente en Russie afin de comprendre les perspectives de sa continuité. L’article examine en détail les principaux moteurs de la croissance, ainsi que les principales évolutions et politiques sous-jacentes. Un des principaux résultats est que le rôle du secteur pétrolier, en particulier les compagnies pétrolières privées, a été considérablement plus important comme moteur de la croissance depuis 2001 que ne l’ont constaté la plupart des analystes. La contribution à la croissance du secteur pétrolier a jusqu’à présent été grandement sous-estimée à cause des données officielles qui ne prennent pas en compte l’utilisation des prix de transfert, et par conséquent ne reflètent pas entièrement l’importance du secteur des hydrocarbures dans l’économie russe. Cet article fait également le point sur la politique budgétaire prudente d’après la crise, qui en gardant le budget fédéral équilibré sur l’ensemble du cycle des cours ...

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Paper provided by OECD Economics Department in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 404.

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Date of creation: 30 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:404-en

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Keywords: economic growth croissance économique transition transition fiscal policy politique budgétaire monetary policy politique monétaire real exchange rates gas gaz Russia Russie capital flight natural resources dutch disease resource curse oil property rights diversification taux de change réel fuite des capitaux ressources naturelles syndrome néerlandais malédiction des ressources pétrole droit de propriété diversification

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies
Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2005-08-13 (All new papers)
• NEP-ENE-2005-08-13 (Energy Economics)
• NEP-HIS-2005-08-13 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
• NEP-MAC-2005-08-13 (Macroeconomics)
• NEP-TRA-2005-08-13 (Transition Economics)

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This page was last updated on 2008-11-17.