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The debate about whether fixed or flexible exchange-rate regimes are better suited to guaranteeing stability has received added stimulus from the macroeconomic crisis in Argentina. This paper argues that it is misleading solely to concentrate on exchange-rate policy to assess the preconditions for stability in an international surrounding. Instead, the exchange-rate regime and the institutional setting have to be compatible to increase the former’s credibility and to contribute to stability. This hypothesis is empirically tested for Latin American countries.
The exchange-rate regime and the institutional setting are linked to form an ex ante proxy for the credibility of the exchange-rate arrangement. We specify the exchange-rate regimes and institutions in Latin America from 1975 to the late 1990s prior to an empirical assessment of the hypothesis. Finally, the Argentine case is discussed specifically. Policy conclusions round off the paper ...
La crise macro-économique en Argentine a rendu plus vif encore le débat sur le régime de change le plus approprié pour garantir la stabilité, à savoir les taux fixes ou le change flottant ? Ce Document technique développe l’idée selon laquelle évaluer les conditions préalables à la stabilité dans un environnement international uniquement à partir de la politique de change est source d’erreur. En effet, le cadre institutionnel doit être compatible avec le régime de change pour que ce dernier soit crédible et renforce la stabilité. Les pays d’Amérique latine sont autant de tests empiriques de cette hypothèse.
Le régime de change et le cadre institutionnel vont de pair pour constituer une approximation ex ante de la crédibilité de l’accord de change. Les auteurs commencent par rappeler les systèmes de change et les institutions en vigueur en Amérique latine de 1975 jusqu’à la fin des années 90. Ils proposent ensuite une évaluation empirique de leur hypothèse, puis examinent en détail ...
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