The Politics and Economics of Transition to an Open Market Economy in Viet Nam
AbstractReform in Viet Nam is a protracted process. Beginning in 1979, it experienced both advances and reversals until 1986, a sudden acceleration in 1989-91, then gradualism hampered by a deepening entrenchment of interests in positions both for and against further liberalisation. A stop-go cycle has developed in which the new incentives and opportunities resulting from reform are sufficient to block broad reversion to earlier phases, but comprehensive advances would seem to depend on the occurrence of deeply unfavourable shocks. When crisis has seriously undermined performance, leaders have embraced reform to shore up legitimacy, while in good times they have tended to disagree over the long-term risks of reform and how to deal with those risks ... La réforme est au Viet Nam un processus de longue haleine. Engagée en 1979, elle a connu jusqu’en 1986 des avancées et des reculs, et une soudaine accélération en 1989-91. Depuis, elle progresse lentement, freinée par le durcissement des positions (favorables ou hostiles à une poursuite de la libéralisation) en fonction des intérêts en jeu. Les opportunités et les incitations nouvelles résultant de la réforme sont suffisamment importantes pour empêcher tout retour en arrière de grande ampleur, mais il semble que les futures avancées dépendront pour une large part de l’apparition de crises. De fait, les décideurs ont soutenu la réforme dans les périodes où une crise a sérieusement compromis la croissance, afin de restaurer leur légitimité. Dans les périodes plus fastes au contraire, des divergences apparaissent sur les risques à long terme de la réforme et la manière d’y répondre ...
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 152.
Date of creation: Sep 1999
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