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The Impact of the African Swine Fever outbreak in China on global agricultural markets

Author

Listed:
  • Clara Frezal
  • Stephan Hubertus Gay
  • Claude Nenert

Abstract

In China, the outbreak of the African Swine Fever is expected to result in a 27% drop in the production of pigmeat, the country’s most consumed meat product. Using the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model, this paper examines the impact of this production shortfall on global markets for livestock products and animal feed over the short and the medium term. In particular, it compares outcomes if the changes induced by the ASF outbreak in China are temporary with outcomes that could result if current changes lead to a restructuring of Chinese protein demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Clara Frezal & Stephan Hubertus Gay & Claude Nenert, 2021. "The Impact of the African Swine Fever outbreak in China on global agricultural markets," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 156, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:agraaa:156-en
    DOI: 10.1787/96d0410d-en
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural trade; Feed market; Pandemic; Pigmeat;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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