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Analysing the Distributional Impacts of Stabilisation Policy with a CGE Model: Illustrations and Critique for Zimbabwe

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Author Info
Sonja Fagernäs
Abstract

ESAU Working Paper 4 applies a standard (IFPRI) macroeconomic CGE model to Zimbabwe to ascertain the likely income distribution impacts of alternative policy instruments for stabilising the economy, specifically for eliminating the current account deficit, viz. devaluation or fiscal adjustment. The author finds, however, that the model is unable for structural reasons to simulate the impact of expenditure reduction on the current account; its closure procedure offsets decreases in public consumption with increases in private consumption. This leaves devaluation as the only analysable policy instrument for balance of payments adjustment. Devaluation is likely to be contractionary for GDP, and in all sectors except agriculture and export-oriented production. Profits and labour incomes in commercial farming rise, but in other sectors fall.

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File URL: http://www.odi.org.uk/esau/publications/working_papers/esau_wp4.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics and Statistics Analysis Unit (ESAU), Overseas Development Institute in its series Working Papers with number 4.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Publication status: Published as ISBN 0 85003 700X
Handle: RePEc:odi:wpaper:4

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Keywords: CGE model stabilisation policy Zimbabwe PSIA expenditure switching expenditure reduction

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  1. R Mabugu, 2001. "Macroeconomic Effects Of A Devaluation In Zimbabwe A Cge Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(4), pages 708-733, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Devarajan, Shantayanan & de Melo, Jaime, 1987. "Adjustment with a Fixed Exchange Rate: Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, and Senegal," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 447-87, May.
  3. Bourguignon, Francois & de Melo, Jaime & Morrisson, Christian, 1991. "Poverty and income distribution during adjustment : issues and evidence from the OECD project," Policy Research Working Paper Series 810, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Davies, Rob & Rattso, Jorn & Torvik, Ragnar, 1998. "Short-Run Consequences of Trade Liberalization: A Computable General Equilibrium Model of Zimbabwe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 305-333, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Siddiqui, Rizwana & Kemal, A R, 2006. "Poverty-reducing or Poverty-inducing? A CGE-based Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2283, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Robinson, Sherman, 1991. "Macroeconomics, financial variables, and computable general equilibrium models," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(11), pages 1509-1525, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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