Aggregate versus Disaggregate Survey-Based Indicators of Economic Activity
AbstractQualitative survey data are used widely to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional indicators exploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who report "up" and "down". This paper considers disaggregate or firm-level survey responses. It derives alternative disaggregate indicators of economic activity relating firms' categorical responses to official data using ordered discrete-choice models. An application to firm-level survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the disaggregate indicators of manufacturing output growth provide more accurate early estimates of manufacturing output growth than traditional aggregate indicators.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Institute of Economic and Social Research in its series NIESR Discussion Papers with number 194.
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- James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2011.
"Efficient Aggregation of Panel Qualitative Survey Data,"
Discussion Papers in Economics
11/53, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2013. "Efficient Aggregation Of Panel Qualitative Survey Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 580-603, 06.
- Troy Matheson & James Mitchell & Brian Silverstone, 2007. "Nowcasting and predicting data revisions in real time using qualitative panel survey data," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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