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Was there a « Greenspan Conundrum » in the Euro area?

Author

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  • G. LAMÉ

    (Insee)

Abstract

This paper implements an affine term structure model that accommodates "unspanned" macro risks for the Euro area, i.e. distinct from yield-curve risks. I use an averaging-estimator approach to obtain a better estimation of the historical dynamics of the pricing factors, thus providing more accurate estimates of the term premium incorporated into the Eurozone's sovereign yield curve. I then look for episodes of the monetary cycle where long yields display a puzzling behavior vis-à-vis the short rate and its expected average path in contrast with the Expectation Hypothesis. The Euro-area bond market appears to have gone through its own "Greenspan conundrum" between January 1999 and August 2008. The term premium substantially contributed to these odd phenomena.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Lamé, 2013. "Was there a « Greenspan Conundrum » in the Euro area?," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2013-10, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:nse:doctra:g2013-10
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    File URL: https://www.bnsp.insee.fr/ark:/12148/bc6p06zr6sb/f1.pdf
    File Function: Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2013-10
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Affine term structure models; unspanned macro risks; monetary policy; expectation hypothesis; term premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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