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Possible Impact of Withdrawal of GST Compensation Post GST Compensation Period on Indian State Finances

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  • Mukherjee, Sacchidandanda

    (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

Abstract

Given the ongoing shortfall in GST collection and uncertainty associated with revenue on account of SGST collection, many states have approached the Fifteenth Finance Commission (FFC) for possible extension of the GST compensation period by another three years, i.e., up to 2024-25. Since the decision on possible extension of the GST compensation period is yet to be taken, it is important to assess possible impact of withdrawal of GST compensation beyond the transition period, i.e., beyond 30 June 2022, on Indian state finances. Any shock to state finances due to withdrawal of GST compensation after the GST transition period may have profound impact on India's fiscal management and therefore macroeconomic stability. Since such impact assessment has not been carried out in Indian public finance literature yet, the present paper attempts to fill the gap. Even if the GST compensation period is extended beyond 30 June 2022, union government may not have adequate fiscal space to provide GST compensation to states at the ongoing annual growth rate of 14 percent, unless either tax buoyancy and/or nominal growth rate of GDP improves. Exploring a possible design of GST Compensation Cess may help the governments to reduce uncertainty (arbitrariness) in setting the growth rate of revenue protection and also provide inducement to states to put additional tax efforts to augment GST collection. Moreover, given the uncertainties associated with GST collection and possible recovery of Indian economy from the ongoing slowdown, a suitable design of GSTCC may release stress from the union finances on account of GST compensation payment obligation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mukherjee, Sacchidandanda, 2020. "Possible Impact of Withdrawal of GST Compensation Post GST Compensation Period on Indian State Finances," Working Papers 20/291, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:npf:wpaper:20/291
    Note: Working Paper 291, 2020
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mukherjee, Sacchidananda, 2019. "Whether States have Capacity to Sustain Projected Growth in GST Collection during the Compensation Period?," Working Papers 19/275, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Mukherjee, Sacchidananda, 2019. "State of Public Finance and Fiscal Management in India during 2001-16," Working Papers 19/265, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Sacchidananda Mukherjee, 2020. "Estimation and Projection of Petroleum Demand and Tax Collection from Petroleum Sector in India," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 12(1), pages 39-68, June.
    4. Ghosh, Anindita & Chakraborty, Lekha, 2019. "Analysing Telangana State Finances: Elongation of Term to Maturity of Debt to Sustain Economic Growth," Working Papers 19/288, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    5. Sapre, Amey, 2019. "Tax evasion and unaccounted incomes: A theoretical approach," Working Papers 19/289, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    6. Sacchidananda Mukherjee, 2019. "Whether States Have Capacity to Sustain Projected Growth in GST Collection During the GST Compensation Period?," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 11(1-2), pages 30-53, April.
    7. Mukherjee, Sacchidandanda, 2020. "Agri-Environmental Sustainability of Indian States during 1990-91 to 2013-14," Working Papers 20/290, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    8. Rao,R. Kavita & Mukherjee,Sacchidananda, 2019. "Evolution of Goods and Services Tax in India," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108473965.
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    1. Sacchidananda Mukherjee, 2020. "Estimation and Projection of Petroleum Demand and Tax Collection from Petroleum Sector in India," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 12(1), pages 39-68, June.
    2. Sacchidananda Mukherjee, 2020. "Inter-governmental Fiscal Transfers in the Presence of Revenue Uncertainty: The Case of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 5(1), pages 74-102, January.
    3. Tandon, Suranjali, 2020. "Is the tax system neutral in India: An analysis of tax treatment of select funds," Working Papers 20/294, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Mukherjee, Sacchidananda, 2021. "Revenue Shortfall and GST Compensation: An Assessment," Working Papers 21/356, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    5. Mukherjee, Sacchidananda, 2020. "Performance Assessment of Indian GST: State-level Analysis of Compliance Gap and Revenue Growth," Working Papers 20/301, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    6. Bose, Sukanya & Noopur, A. & Nayudu, Sri Hari, 2022. "Intergovernmental Fiscal transfers and Expenditure on Education in India: State level analysis, 2005 to 2020," Working Papers 22/377, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

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