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Wage Effects of A U.S. - Mexican Free Trade Agreement

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Edward E. Leamer

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the extent to which education will be subsidized when the subsidy rate is determined by majority voting. The analysis takes place in a framework where education is a discrete decision and all individuals would like to obtain an education because of its effect on future earnings. Individuals differ in their initial income levels. Mexico doesn't seem economically large enough now to have a significant effect on the prices of goods and the earnings of labor in the United States, but Mexican population growth and productivity gains induced by liberalization will make the Mexico of the future much larger than today, especially in those sectors that use intensively Mexico's abundant low-skilled labor. Furthermore, in a free trade agreement with the United States, Mexico has an incentive to concentrate production on those sectors that are most protected by the U.S, from third-country competition, and to export all that product to the high-priced protected U.S. market. For all these reasons, the Mexico of the future is large enough to undo current or future U.S. protection designed to maintain wages of low-skilled workers. With or without a free trade agreement. the United States faces a substantial problem with the continuing economic deterioration of the lowest skilled workers. A free trade agreement with Mexico would keep the U.S. from using protectionism to deal with this problem.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3991.

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Date of creation: Feb 1992
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3991

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  7. De Loo,Ivo & Ziesemer,Thomas, 1998. "Determinants Of Sectoral Average Wage Growth Rates in a Specific Factors Model with International Capital Movements: The Case of Cobb-Douglas Production Functions," Research Memoranda 006, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Chang, Hsaio-chuan, 1999. "Wage Differential, Trade, Productivity Growth and Education," Departmental Working Papers 2000-01, Australian National University, Economics RSPAS. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alan B. Krueger, 1997. "Labor Market Shifts and the Price Puzzle Revisited," NBER Working Papers 5924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Jeff Borland, 2000. "Economic Explanations of Earnings Distribution Trends in the International Literature and Application to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 00/16, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gordon H. Hanson & Ann Harrison, 1995. "Trade, Technology, and Wage Inequality," NBER Working Papers 5110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. De Loo,Ivo & Ziesemer,Thomas, 1999. "Determinants Of Sectoral Average Wage and Employment Growth Rates in a Specific Factors Model with Production Externalities and International Capital Movements," Research Memoranda 006, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  15. Robert E. Baldwin & Glen G. Cain, 1997. "Shifts in U.S. Relative Wages: The Role of Trade, Technology and Factor Endowments," NBER Working Papers 5934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Zakhilwal, Omar, 2001. "The Impact of International Trade on the Wages of Canadians," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2001156e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch. [Downloadable!]
  17. Abdel-Rahman, Hesham M., 2003. "Skill distribution and income disparity in a north-south trade model," Working Papers 2003-12, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  18. Eugene Beaulieu & Vivek Dehejia & Hazrat-Omar Zakhilwal, 2004. "International Trade, Labour Turnover, and the Wage Premium: Testing the Bhagwati-Dehejia Hypothesis for Canada," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  19. Olivier Cortes & Sebastien Jean & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1996. "Trade with Emerging Countries and the Labour Market : The French Case," Working Papers 1996-04, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  20. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 1995. "Foreign Investment, Outsourcing and Relative Wages," NBER Working Papers 5121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Hesham M. Abdel-Rahman & George Norman & Ping Wang, 2001. "Skill Dierentiation and Income Disparity in a Decentralized Matching Model of North-South Trade," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0115, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
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