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Changing Central Bank Pressures and Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Hassan Afrouzi
  • Marina Halac
  • Kenneth S. Rogoff
  • Pierre Yared

Abstract

We present a simple long-run aggregate demand and supply framework for evaluating long-run inflation. The framework illustrates how exogenous economic and political economy factors generate central bank pressures that can impact long-run inflation as well as transitions between steady states. We use the analysis to provide a fresh perspective on the forces that drove global inflation downward over the past four decades. We argue that for inflation to remain low and stable in the future, political economy factors, such as strengthened central bank independence or more credible public debt policy, would need to offset the global economic pressures now pushing average long-run inflation upwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan Afrouzi & Marina Halac & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Pierre Yared, 2024. "Changing Central Bank Pressures and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 32308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32308
    Note: EFG ME POL
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Monetary Policy, Employment Shortfalls, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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