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Whatever it Takes? The Impact of Conditional Policy Promises

Author

Listed:
  • Valentin Haddad
  • Alan Moreira
  • Tyler Muir

Abstract

At the announcement of a new policy, agents form a view of state-contingent policy actions and impact. We develop a method to estimate this state-contingent perception and implement it for many asset-purchase interventions worldwide. Expectations of larger support in bad states—“policy puts”—explain a large fraction of the announcements’ impact. For example, when the Fed introduced purchases of corporate bonds in March 2020, markets expected five times more price support had conditions worsened relative to the median scenario. Perceived promises of additional support in bad states persistently distort asset prices, risk, and the response to future announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin Haddad & Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2023. "Whatever it Takes? The Impact of Conditional Policy Promises," NBER Working Papers 31259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31259
    Note: AP CF EFG ME
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    Cited by:

    1. Bauer, Michael D. & Pflueger, Carolin E. & Sunderam, Adi, 2022. "Perceptions about monetary policy," IMFS Working Paper Series 176, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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