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Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Carola Binder
  • Pei Kuang
  • Li Tang

Abstract

We study how US consumers’ house price expectations respond to verbal and non-verbal communication about interest rate changes using several large online surveys. Verbal communication about interest rate hikes leads to little response of average house price expectations but large heterogeneity among household groups. Communication about rate hikes combined with a simple explanation of the mortgage rate channel causes large downward revisions to house price expectations. Consumers interpret heterogeneously Chair Powell’s voice tone and body language at the press conference which significantly influence their house price expectations. More negative evaluations are associated with larger upward revisions to house price expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Carola Binder & Pei Kuang & Li Tang, 2023. "Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations," NBER Working Papers 31232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31232
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuang, Pei & Luca, Davide & Wei, Zhiwu & Yao, Yao, 2023. "Great or grim? Disagreement about Brexit, economic expectations and household spending," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119200, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Yu, Zhen & Liu, Wei & Yang, Fuyu, 2023. "A central bankers’ sentiment index of global financial cycle," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E7 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics

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