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The Fiscal Consequences of Missing an Inflation Target

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  • Michele Andreolli
  • Hélène Rey

Abstract

The European Central Bank is unique in setting monetary policy for several sovereign states with heterogeneous debt levels and different maturity structures. The monetary-fiscal nexus is central to the functioning of the euro area. We focus on one particular aspect of that nexus, the effect the reliability of the European Central Bank's monetary policy on public finances. We show that when the ECB misses its inflation target this has large heterogeneous fiscal consequences for Euro Area countries. For comparison we also estimate the fiscal consequences of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England missing their inflation targets. They are also sizeable.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Andreolli & Hélène Rey, 2023. "The Fiscal Consequences of Missing an Inflation Target," NBER Working Papers 30819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30819
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    Cited by:

    1. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Jesionek, Julia & Muggenthaler, Philip & Frutos, Mario Alloza & Avgousti, Aristoklis & Briodeau, Clémence & Brusbārde, Baiba & Caprioli, Francesc, 2023. "The effects of high inflation on public finances in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 332, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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