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Non-parametric Gravity

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  • James E. Anderson

Abstract

Non-parametric gravity as defined in this paper encompasses previous parametric forms. The model generates non-parametric sufficient statistics for arbitrage gains from trade and terms of trade, and a non-parametric elasticity of terms of trade with respect to supply. For world manufacturing trade 2000-2014, China’s gains rose 2%yearly and terms of trade fell 8.3%. US gains fell 2% yearly and terms of trade rose 5.5%. Counterfactual industrial policy that raises US 2014 world sales share by 1% lowers US gains per unit 0.72%, leaving a surplus of 0.28%. A novel minimum distance estimator generates the CES trade elasticity required.

Suggested Citation

  • James E. Anderson, 2022. "Non-parametric Gravity," NBER Working Papers 30807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30807
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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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