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A Fiscal Theory of Persistent Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Bianchi
  • Renato Faccini
  • Leonardo Melosi

Abstract

We develop a new class of general equilibrium models with partially unfunded debt to propose a fiscal theory of persistent inflation. In response to business cycle shocks, the monetary authority controls inflation and the fiscal authority stabilizes debt. How- ever, the central bank accommodates unfunded fiscal shocks, causing persistent movements in inflation, output, and real interest rates. In an estimated quantitative model, fiscal inflation accounts for the bulk of inflation dynamics. In the aftermath of the pandemic, unfunded fiscal shocks sustain the recovery, but also cause a persistent increase in inflation. The model is able to predict the inflationary effects of the ARPA fiscal stimulus out of sample and with real time data.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2022. "A Fiscal Theory of Persistent Inflation," NBER Working Papers 30727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30727
    Note: EFG ME
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Galo Nuño & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by Falling Stars: Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates," NBER Working Papers 32219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Carlos Esteban Posada, 2023. "Inflation targeting strategy and its credibility," Papers 2301.11207, arXiv.org.
    3. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Carlos Goncalves & Zoltan Jakab & Jesper Lindé, 2023. "Can Fiscal Consolidation help Central Banks Fight Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 2023/260, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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