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Fed Implied Market Prices and Risk Premia

Author

Listed:
  • Charles W. Calomiris
  • Joanna Harris
  • Harry Mamaysky
  • Cristina Tessari

Abstract

We introduce FDIF, a measure of Fed communication surprise based on the text of FOMC statements. FDIF measures the difference between text-implied and actual values of key market variables. Positive FDIF of countercyclical variables (e.g., credit spreads) is associated with negative macroeconomic forecast revisions; the opposite holds for procyclical variables. Industries that hedge bad FDIF news earn low returns on FOMC announcement days, but high returns on non-FOMC days. The opposite holds for FDIF-exposed industries, and the return differences are large. Controlling for FDIF exposure, rate-based policy surprise measures are not priced in the cross-section of industry returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles W. Calomiris & Joanna Harris & Harry Mamaysky & Cristina Tessari, 2022. "Fed Implied Market Prices and Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 30210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30210
    Note: AP ME
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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