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Should We Have Automatic Triggers for Unemployment Benefit Duration And How Costly Would They Be?

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
  • Peter Ganong
  • Jonathan Gruber

Abstract

We model automatic trigger policies for unemployment insurance by simulating a weekly panel of individual labor market histories, grouped by state. We reach three conclusions: (i) policies designed to trigger immediately at the onset of a recession result in benefit extensions that occur in less sick labor markets than the historical average for benefit extensions; (ii) the ad hoc extensions in the 2001 and 2007-09 recessions in total cover a similar number of additional weeks as common proposals for automatic triggers, but concentrate coverage more in weaker labor markets; (iii) compared to ex post policy, the cost of common proposals for automatic triggers is close to zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Peter Ganong & Jonathan Gruber, 2022. "Should We Have Automatic Triggers for Unemployment Benefit Duration And How Costly Would They Be?," NBER Working Papers 29703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29703
    Note: EFG ME PE
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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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