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Growing Like India: The Unequal Effects of Service-Led Growth

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  • Tianyu Fan
  • Michael Peters
  • Fabrizio Zilibotti

Abstract

Structural transformation in most currently developing countries takes the form of a rapid rise in services but limited industrialization. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to structurally estimate productivity growth in service industries that circumvents the notorious difficulties in measuring quality improvements. In our theory, the expansion of the service sector is both a consequence—due to income effects—and a cause— due to productivity growth—of the development process. We estimate the model using Indian household data. We find that productivity growth in non-tradable consumer services such as retail, restaurants, or residential real estate, was an important driver of structural transformation and rising living standards between 1987 and 2011. However, the welfare gains were heavily skewed toward high-income urban dwellers.

Suggested Citation

  • Tianyu Fan & Michael Peters & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2021. "Growing Like India: The Unequal Effects of Service-Led Growth," NBER Working Papers 28551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28551
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    Cited by:

    1. Rafael Serrano-Quintero, 2023. "Structural transformation in India: The Role of the Service Sector," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2023/451, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Rohini Pande & Nils Enevoldsen, 2021. "Comment on "Converging to Convergence"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021, volume 36, pages 413-424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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