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The Rise and Fall of Import Substitution

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  • Douglas A. Irwin

Abstract

In the 1950s, many economists believed that import substitution – policies to restrict imports of manufactured goods – was the best trade strategy to promote industrialization and economic growth in developing countries. By the mid-1960s, there was widespread disenchantment with the results of such policies, even among its proponents. This paper traces the rise and fall of import substitution as a development idea. Perhaps surprisingly, early advocates of import substitution were quite cautious in their support for the policy and were also among the first to question it based on evidence derived from country experiences.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas A. Irwin, 2020. "The Rise and Fall of Import Substitution," NBER Working Papers 27919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27919
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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson & Vicente Pinilla, 2022. "Wine's belated globalization, 1845–2025," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 742-765, June.
    2. Dimitrios Karkanis & Myrsini Fotopoulou, 2023. "Import Substitution or Just “Catching the Wave”? Evidence from the Greek Manufacturing Exports," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 3-15.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B27 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - International Trade and Finance
    • B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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