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The Lure of Incredible Certitude

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  • Charles F. Manski

Abstract

Forthright characterization of scientific uncertainty is important in principle and serves important practical purposes. Nevertheless, economists and other researchers commonly report findings with incredible certitude, reporting point predictions and estimates. To motivate expression of incredible certitude, economists often suggest that researchers respond to incentives that make the practice tempting. This temptation is the "lure" of incredible certitude. I flesh out and appraise some of the rationales that observers may have in mind when they state that incredible certitude responds to incentives. I conclude that scientific expression of incredible certitude at most has appeal in certain limited contexts. It should not be a general practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles F. Manski, 2018. "The Lure of Incredible Certitude," NBER Working Papers 24905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24905
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    Cited by:

    1. John Mullahy, 2022. "Investigating health-related time use with partially observed data," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 103-121, March.
    2. Eduardo Fé, 2021. "Pension eligibility rules and the local causal effect of retirement on cognitive functioning," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(3), pages 812-841, July.
    3. John Mullahy, 2021. "Discovering treatment effectiveness via median treatment effects—Applications to COVID‐19 clinical trials," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1050-1069, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • Z18 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Public Policy

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