Analysis of business demography using markov chains : an application to Belgian data
AbstractThis paper applies the theory of finite Markov chains to analyse the demographic evolution of Belgian enterprises. While other methodologies concentrate on the entry and exit of firms, the Markov approach also analyses migrations between economic sectors. Besides helping to provide a fuller picture of the evolution of the population, Markov chains also enable forecasts of its future composition to be made, as well as the computation of average lifetimes of companies by branch of activity. The method is applied to Belgian data from the Crossroads Bank for Enterprises (CBE). To ensure compliance with Eurostat-OECD definitions, only 'active' enterprises, i.e. enterprises with a positive turnover and/or at least one employee, are considered. The forecasting method is applied to simulate the demographic evolution of the CBE population between 2000 and 2006. This simulation seems to match well the observed changes. Taking migrations into account yields better forecasts than if they are not considered. Moreover, several off-diagonal percentages in the transition matrix are sigificantly different from zero. A case study shows that these migrations are changes in main activity and not the consequence of corrections of wrongly classified firms. Next, the average remaining lifetime and the average age of enterprises in a particular branch of activity is computed and analysed. These lifetimes and ages differ considerably across branches. As expected the life-times of public services are longer than average. Shorter lifetimes combined with an increasing number of enterprises is an indication of renewal inside the branch. A low average age is a sign of relatively new branches. Comparing age to total expected lifetime yields an indicator of closeness to extinction. This might be an indicator of the maturity of the branch. The method is more generally applicable in the sense that it can be used to analyse other populations than those from the CBE and other partitions of the population
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 170.
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Boulevard de Berlaimont 14, B-1000 Bruxelles
Phone: (+ 32) (0) 2 221 25 34
Fax: (+ 32) (0) 2 221 31 62
Web page: http://www.nbb.be
More information through EDIRC
Business demography; Markov chains; Transition matrix;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
- M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-11 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- François Coppens & Fernando Gonzáles & Gerhard Winkler, 2007.
"The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations,"
Working Paper Research
118, National Bank of Belgium.
- François Coppens & Fernando González & Gerhard Winkler, 2007. "The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations," Occasional Paper Series 65, European Central Bank.
- John Haltiwanger, 2000. "Aggregate Growth: What Have We Learned from Microeconomic Evidence?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 267, OECD Publishing.
- Carol Newman & John Rand & Finn Tarp, 2007.
"Sector Switching: An Unexplored Dimension of Firm Dynamics in Developing Countries,"
07-22, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Carol Newman & John Rand & Finn Tarp, 2007. "Sector Switching: An Unexplored Dimension of Firm Dynamics in Developing Countries," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp230, IIIS.
- Carol Newman & John Rand & Finn Tarp, 2007. "Sector Switching: An Unexplored Dimension of Firm Dynamics in Developing Countries," Trinity Economics Papers tep1007, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Eric Bartelsman & Stefano Scarpetta & Fabiano Schivardi, 2003. "Comparative Analysis of Firm Demographics and Survival: Micro-Level Evidence for the OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 348, OECD Publishing.
- Pellenbarg, P.H. & Wissen, L.J.G. van & Dijk, J. van, 2002. "Firm relocation: state of the art and research prospects," Research Report 02D31, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
- Nadim Ahmad, 2006. "A Proposed Framework For business Demography Statistics," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2006/3, OECD Publishing.
- Jouke van Dijk, 2008. "More Papers in Regional Science," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(1), pages 1-2, 03.
- Eric J. Bartelsman & Mark Doms, 2000.
"Understanding productivity: lessons from longitudinal microdata,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2000-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Mark Doms & Eric J. Bartelsman, 2000. "Understanding Productivity: Lessons from Longitudinal Microdata," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(3), pages 569-594, September.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.