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The Effects of Inflation and Demographic Change on Property Crime: A Structural Time-Series Approach

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  • R. Alan Seals
  • John Nunley

Abstract

This paper extends previous empirical research on the determinants of aggregate property crime rates in two dimensions. First, we examine the effect of inflation on property crime rates. Then, using a structural time-series approach we show that it is possible to estimate consistently the effects of exogenous macroeconomic variables on aggregate property crime rates without introducing endogenous deterrence to the model. Inflation is statistically significant, positive, and persistent for all property crime rates examined. We conclude that price stability contributes considerably to the reduction of property crimes.

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File URL: http://capone.mtsu.edu/berc/working/Seals-Nunley(2007).pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 200701.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:mts:wpaper:200701

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Web page: http://www.mtsu.edu/~berc/working/Economics_Working_Papers.html
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Related research

Keywords: property crime; inflation; female labor force participation; manufacturing employment; structural time series; unobserved component models;

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Cited by:
  1. Yearwood, Douglas L. & Koinis, Gerry, 2009. "Revisting Property Crime and Economic Conditions: An Exploratory Study to Identify Predictive Indicators beyond Unemployment Rates," MPRA Paper 16834, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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