Macroemesures in Computable General Equilibrium Models: A Probabilistic Treatment with an Application to Morocco
AbstractWith the help of an illustrative general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Moroccan Economy, we test for the significance of simulation results in the case where the exact macromesure is not known with certainty. This is done by computing lower and upper bounds for the simulation resukts, given a priori probabilities attached to three possible closures (Classical, Johansen, Keynesian). Our Conclusion is that, when there is uncertainty on closures several endogenous changes lack significance, which, in turn, limit the use of the model for policy prescriptions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 9621.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
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ECONOMIC MODELS; ECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM;
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