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Measuring the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools under Adaptive Learning

Author

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  • Cole, Stephen J.
  • Huh, Sungjun

Abstract

We compare the economic effects of forward guidance and quantitative easing utilizing the four-equation New Keynesian model of Sims, Wu, and Zhang (2023) with agents forming expectations via an adaptive learning rule. The results indicate forward guidance can have a greater influence on macroeconomic variables compared to quantitative easing, suggesting that forward guidance may have contributed to the high inflation rate after the COVID-19 related recession. Adaptive learning agents estimate a higher effect of forward guidance on the economy leading to a greater impact on expectations, and thus, contemporaneous inflation. However, the performance gap between forward guidance and quantitative easing can change. If quantitative easing includes anticipated shocks, more households finance consumption through long-term borrowing, and the central bank provides a greater percentage of liquidity in the long-term borrowing market, the performance of quantitative easing can increase, and at times, outperform forward guidance.

Suggested Citation

  • Cole, Stephen J. & Huh, Sungjun, 2023. "Measuring the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools under Adaptive Learning," Working Papers and Research 2023-05, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:mrq:wpaper:2023-05
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    File URL: https://epublications.marquette.edu/econ_workingpapers/92
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unconvetional monetary policy; QE; LSAP; forward guidance; adaptive learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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