Determinants of Pregnancy, Induced and Spontaneous Abortion in a Jointly Determined Framework: Evidence from a Country wide District Level Household Survey in India

This study provides evidence on the principal determinants of pregnancy and abortion in India using a country wide large district level data set. The study distinguishes between induced and spontaneous abortion and compares the effects of their determinants. The results show that there are wide differences between the two forms of abortion with respect to the sign and magnitude of several of their determinants, most notably, wealth, the woman's age and her desire for children. The study makes a methodological contribution by proposing a trivariate probit estimation framework that recognises the joint dependence of pregnancy, induced and spontaneous abortion. It provides evidence that supports the joint dependence. The study reports an inverted U shaped effect of the woman's age on her pregnancy and both forms of abortion. The turning point in each case is quite robust to the estimation framework. The study finds significant effect of contextual variables at the village level, constructed from the individual responses, on the woman's pregnancy. The effects are weaker in case of induced abortion, and insignificant in case of spontaneous abortion. The qualitative results are shown to be fairly robust.