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Dynamiques ex post et ex ante de pauvreté au Niger

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  • Daouda Youssoufou Hamadou

    (GED, Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV)

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    Abstract

    Cet article tente de mettre en évidence la dynamique monétaire de la pauvreté au Niger au cours de la période 2005 et 2007-2008. Premièrement, l’analyse portée sur les outils de mesures classiques de la pauvreté – indices FGT, dominance stochastique, décomposition sectorielle, etc. – révèle une baisse statistiquement significative de la pauvreté au cours de la période considérée malgré quelques disparités sectorielles. Deuxièmement, une nouvelle stratification des individus, des formes de pauvreté et de la vulnérabilité a été opérée. A cet égard, les résultats suggèrent que la pauvreté chronique a fortement chuté – 0,844 à 0,586, mais la pauvreté transitoire a quant à elle augmenté – 0,155 à 0,414. Par ailleurs, l’approfondissement des dimensions de la vulnérabilité laisse entrevoir que les couches fragiles de la population n’ont pas connu une baisse de leur probabilité moyenne de vulnérabilité – 0,727 à 0,702 et 0,661 à 0,665, respectivement pour les pauvres chroniques et les non pauvres vulnérables et précaires. Enfin, l’exploration des déterminants des dimensions de la pauvreté et de la vulnérabilité au moyen d’un modèle logistique multinomial, montre que les facteurs explicatifs de la pauvreté et/ou de la vulnérabilité sont inhérents : (i) au statut socioéconomique : les familles dirigées par un agriculteur sont plus susceptibles d’être localisés dans les segments les plus bas de la distribution du niveau de vie ; (ii) au niveau d’instruction : les ménages conduits par un chef sans instruction, ont plus de chance d’être identifiés dans le segment des pauvres chroniques comparativement à un chef qui possède un niveau secondaire ; (iii) à la localisation géographique : l’analyse économétrique confirme que la pauvreté reste traditionnellement massive dans les quatre grandes régions du pays – Dosso, Maradi, Tillabéry et Zinder – où les probabilités de pauvreté chronique sont les plus élevées. This article tries to highlight the monetary dynamics of poverty at Niger during the period 2005 and 2007-2008. Firstly, the analysis related to the traditional measuring instruments of poverty - indices FGT, stochastic predominance, sectoral decomposition, etc - reveals a statistically significant fall of poverty during the period considered in spite of some sectoral disparities. Secondly, a new stratification of the individuals, forms of poverty and vulnerability were operated. In this respect, the results suggest that chronic poverty strongly fell - 0.844 to 0.586, but transitory poverty as for it increased - 0.155 to 0.414. In addition, the deepening of dimensions of the vulnerability lets foresee that the fragile layers of the population did not know a fall of their average probability of vulnerability - 0,727 to 0.702 and 0.661 to 0.665, respectively for the chronic poor and non poor but vulnerable and precarious. Lastly, the exploration of the determinants of dimensions of poverty and the vulnerability using a logistic model multinomial, watch that the explanatory factors of poverty and/or vulnerability are inherent: (I) with the socio-economic statute: the families directed by a farmer are more likely to be localized in the bottoms segments of the distribution of the standard of living; (II) on the educational level: the households led by a chief without instruction, are likely more to be identified in the segment of the chronic poor compared to a chief who has a secondary level; (III) with the geographical location: the econometric analysis confirms that poverty remains traditionally massive in the four great areas of the country - Dosso, Maradi, Tillabéry and Zinder - where the probabilities of chronic poverty are highest.(Full text in french)

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV in its series Documents de travail with number 153.

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    Length: 43 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:153

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