Il boom demografico prossimo venturo. Tendenze demografiche, mercato del lavoro ed immigrazione: scenari e politiche
AbstractThe aim of the research is to introduce a generational stock-flow model to estimate international migration needs and provide long terms demographic forecasts in which migration is an endogenous variables determined by demographic trends and additional labor demand. At the empirical levels, it provides long term scenarios of net migratory balances and demographic trends for Italy. The main conclusion is that the decrease in fertility experienced by Italy, as by all industrialized countries, will not determine a contraction of population and working age population, as forecasted by all national and international statistical institutions, but will generate unprecedented population increases and international migratory flows
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi" in its series Department of Economics with number 0607.
Length: pages 271
Date of creation: Dec 2008
Date of revision:
demography; iimmigration; labour market; economy politics;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2009-06-10 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2009-06-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-MIG-2009-06-10 (Economics of Human Migration)
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