Demographic forecasts, migration and transition theory: a labor market perspective
AbstractThe paper proposes a new logical system to build demographic scenarios based on a model that explain migration infl ows as a function of the manpower needs that countries with below replacement fertility are experiencing, as a result both of the decline in Working Age Population and employment growth. Using this approach we show that the WAP of countries characterized by low fertility will necessarily increase; that the migration balance of numerous countries will turn from negative to positive well before 2050; that the level of the international migration fl ows will progressively increase to unprecedented values so that at least 250-300 million people will move from developing countries to developed countries in the next 50 years; that the decline in fertility and the relative rates of employment growth of developed and developing countries will determine radical changes in the pattern of international migrations. The last part of the paper discusses some policy implications of this vision of the future.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica in its series Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) with number 0070.
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
microsimulation; inequality; in-kind benefits; higher education; university; tuition fees; subsidy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
- H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
- H42 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Private Goods
- H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
- I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
- I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
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- E. J. Wilson & K. Jayanthakumaran & R. Verma, 2012.
"Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity,"
Development Economics Working Papers
23348, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- E. J. Wilson & K. Jayanthakumaran & R. Verma, 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," Labor Economics Working Papers 23348, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Wilson, E. J. & Jayanthakumaran, K. & Verma, R., 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," ADBI Working Papers 387, Asian Development Bank Institute.
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