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Demographic forecasts, migration and transition theory: a labor market perspective

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  • Michele Bruni

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Abstract

The paper proposes a new logical system to build demographic scenarios based on a model that explain migration infl ows as a function of the manpower needs that countries with below replacement fertility are experiencing, as a result both of the decline in Working Age Population and employment growth. Using this approach we show that the WAP of countries characterized by low fertility will necessarily increase; that the migration balance of numerous countries will turn from negative to positive well before 2050; that the level of the international migration fl ows will progressively increase to unprecedented values so that at least 250-300 million people will move from developing countries to developed countries in the next 50 years; that the decline in fertility and the relative rates of employment growth of developed and developing countries will determine radical changes in the pattern of international migrations. The last part of the paper discusses some policy implications of this vision of the future.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica in its series Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) with number 0070.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:mod:cappmo:0070

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Web page: http://www.capp.unimore.it
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Related research

Keywords: microsimulation; inequality; in-kind benefits; higher education; university; tuition fees; subsidy;

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Cited by:
  1. E. J. Wilson & K. Jayanthakumaran & R. Verma, 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," Development Economics Working Papers 23348, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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