Beating the Random Walk in Central and Eastern Europe by Survey Forecasts
AbstractThis paper investigates the forecasting ability of survey data on exchange rate expectations with multiple forecast horizons. The survey forecasts are on the exchange rates of five Central and Eastern European currencies: Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Romanian Leu and Slovakian Koruna. First, different term-structure models are fitted on the survey forecasts. Then, the forecasting performances of the fitted forecasts are compared. The fitted forecasts for the 5 months horizon and beyond are proved to be significantly better than the random walk on the pooled data of the five currencies. The best performing term-structure model is the one that assumes an exponential relationship between the forecast and the forecast horizon, and has time-varying parameters.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2011/3.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
evaluating forecasts; exchange rate; survey forecast; time-varying parameter; term-structure of forecasts;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-07-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-07-13 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2011-07-13 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2011-07-13 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2011-07-13 (Transition Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Johanna Jeney).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.