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Mind the Gap – International Comparison of Cyclical Adjustment of the Budget

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  • Gábor P. Kiss

    ()
    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Gábor Vadas

    ()
    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

Cyclically adjusted budget balance (CAB) is a widely cited and widely used concept in the evaluation of fiscal situations. The key idea behind it involves the identification of potential levels of economic variables. There are two recently used methods: the aggregate approach and the unconstrained disaggregate approach. In this paper we apply them on USA, Japan and 25 EU member countries to demonstrate that both approaches could be the source of considerable bias. While the aggregate approach cannot cope with different shocks, the unconstrained disaggregate method involves systematic bias and do not contain theoretical consideration. In order to avoid these distortions we present an alternative framework, which is able to incorporate the advantages of both approaches. Combining arbitrary output gap and constrained multivariate HP filter induces theoretically motivated disaggregation where we also exploit the implication of production function parameterisation. We found that the price effect resulting from the composition effect of different deflators could play an important role in evaluation of the fiscal position. To display the importance of composition effect we analyse the cyclical components of Finnish, Hungarian and Italian budget balances more in detail.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2005/04.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2005/04

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Web page: http://www.mnb.hu/
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Related research

Keywords: cyclically adjusted budget deficit; price gap; business cycles; constrained multivariate HP filter;

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  1. Mind the gap! And the way structural budget balances are calculated*
    by ? in Bruegel blog on 2013-10-12 16:29:03
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Cited by:
  1. George Kopits, 2007. "Fiscal Responsibility Framework: International Experience and Implications for Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2007/62, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  2. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.

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