Structural breaks and financial risk management
AbstractThere is ample empirical evidence on the presence of structural changes in financial time series. Structural breaks are also shown to contribute to the leptokurtosis of financial returns and explain at least partly the observed persistence of volatility processes. This paper explores whether detecting and taking into account structural breaks in the volatility model can improve upon our Value at Risk forecast. VAR is used by banks as a standard risk measure and is accepted by regulation in setting capital, which makes it an issue for the central bank guarding against systemic risk. This paper investigates daily BUX returns over the period 1995-2002. The Bai-Perron algorithm found several breaks in the mean and volatility of BUX return. The shift in the level of unconditional mean return around 1997-1998 is likely to be explained by the evolving efficiency of the market, but most of all by the halt of a strong upward trend in the preceding period. Volatility jumped to very high levels due to the Asian and Russian crisis. There were longer lasting shift too, most likely due to increasing trading volume. When in-sample forecasts are evaluated, models with SB dummies outperform the alternative methods. According to the rolling-window estimation and out-of-sample forecast the SB models seem to perform slightly better. However the results are sensitive to the evaluation criteria used, and the choice on the probability level.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2004/11.
Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Structural Break tests; volatility forecasting; Value-at-Risk; backtest.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
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- Sen, Chitrakalpa & Chakrabarti, Gagari & Sarkar, Amitava, 1981. "Asymmetric Response in Foreign Exchange Volatility under Structural Break," MPRA Paper 26817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Balázs Égert & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Evžen Kočenda & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2006. "Structural changes in Central and Eastern European economies: breaking news or breaking the ice?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 85-103, June.
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