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Attila Csajbók - András Rezessy : Hungary's euro zone entry date: what do the markets think and what if they change their minds?

Author

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  • Attila Csajbók

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • András Rezessy

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

This article investigates the potential impact of a shift in market expectations about a country’s eurozone entry date on long-term yields and the spot exchange rate in a simple uncovered interest parity (UIP) framework. The results suggest that the size of the reactions depend on how far the entry date is postponed, how far current inflation is from the Maastricht-satisfying level, and whether the credibility of the central bank’s target inflation path is sensitive to changes in the expected entry date. In the empirical part, the authors apply the framework for Hungary and draw some policy conclusions for the timing of ERM II entry.

Suggested Citation

  • Attila Csajbók & András Rezessy, 2005. "Attila Csajbók - András Rezessy : Hungary's euro zone entry date: what do the markets think and what if they change their minds?," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/37, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2005/37
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/op-37.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Siklos, Pierre L., 2006. "Hungary's entry into the euro area: Lessons for prospective members from a monetary policy perspective," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 366-384, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; monetary union; expectations; euro zone entry; uncovered interest parity.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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