Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Multi-Factor Model of Correlated Commodity - Forward Curves for Crude Oil and Shipping Markets

Contents:

Author Info

  • Paul D. Sclavounos
  • Per Einar Ellefsen
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    An arbitrage free multi-factor model is developed of the correlated forward curves of the crude oil, gasoline, heating oil and tanker shipping markets. Futures contracts trading on public exchanges are used as the primary underlying securities for the development of a multi-factor Gaussian Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model for the dynamic evolution of the correlated forward curves. An intra- and inter-commodity Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is carried out in order to isolate seasonality and identify a small number of independent factors driving each commodity market. The cross-commodity correlation of the factors is estimated by a two step PCA. The factor volatilities and cross-commodity factor correlations are studied in order to identify stable parametric models, heteroskedasticity and seasonality in the factor volatilities and correlations. The model leads to explicit stochastic differential equations governing the short term and long term factors driving the price of the spot commodity under the risk neutral measure. Risk premia are absent, consistently with HJM arbitrage free framework, as they are imbedded in the factor volatilities and correlations estimated by the PCA. The use of the model is described for the pricing of derivatives written on inter- and intra-commodity futures spreads, Asian options, the valuation and hedging of energy and shipping assets, the fuel efficient navigation of shipping fleets and use in corporate risk management.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://tisiphone.mit.edu/RePEc/mee/wpaper/2009-002.pdf
    Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 500 Can't connect to tisiphone.mit.edu:80 (10060). If this is indeed the case, please notify (Sharmila Ganguly)
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 0902.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: Mar 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:mee:wpaper:0902

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 77 Massachusetts Ave. (Building E40-279), Cambridge, MA 02139-4307
    Phone: (617) 253-3551
    Fax: (617) 253-9845
    Email:
    Web page: http://tisiphone.mit.edu/RePEc
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mee:wpaper:0902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sharmila Ganguly) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Sharmila Ganguly to update the entry or send us the correct address.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.