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Zur Anhebung der Altersgrenzen: Eine Simulation der langfristigen Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung bei unterschiedlichem Renteneintrittsverhalten

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  • Tabea Bucher-Koenen

    ()

  • Christina Benita Wilke

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

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    Abstract

    Die Anhebung des Regelrentenalters ist ein weiterer Schritt im Rahmen der Reformen der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung in Deutschland. Die Wirkung dieser Maßnahme hängt entscheidend vom Reaktionsverhalten der betroffenen Erwerbstätigen ab. In diesem Beitrag simulieren wir die langfristigen finanziellen Auswirkungen der Altersgrenzenanhebung bis 2050 abhängig vom Reaktionsverhalten der Betroffenen und unter Berücksichtigung von Rückkopplungseffekten mit dem Arbeitsmarkt. Insgesamt führt die Altersgrenzenanhebung zu einem geringeren Anstieg des Beitragssatzes sowie einem geringeren Rückgang des Rentenniveaus. Je nach Veränderung des Renteneintrittsverhaltens liegt der Effekt bis 2050 zwischen 0,7 und 1,0 Beitragssatzpunkte bzw. 0,8 bis 1,1 Prozentpunkten des Bruttorentenniveaus. Auf der individuellen Ebene kann ein Rückgang des Alterseinkommens deutlich durch eine Anpassung des Erwerbsverhaltens beeinflusst werden.

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    Paper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 08159.

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    Date of creation: 02 Jun 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:08159

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    Postal: Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Amalienstraße 33, 80799 München, Germany
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    Cited by:
    1. Manuel Kallweit, 2009. "Rentenreform und Rentenzugangsentscheidung – Eine numerische Gleichgewichtsanalyse," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 229(4), pages 426-449, August.

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