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Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?

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  • Axel Börsch-Supan

    ()

  • Alexander Ludwig

    ()

  • Joachim Winter

    ()
    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

Hilft eine höhere Geburtenrate, die Folgen der Alterung zu dämpfen? Die Ergebnisse der Wirtschaftstheorie sind keinesfalls eindeutig, auch wenn die Idee – „Wenn wir zu viele Alte haben, brauchen wir mehr Kinder, um dies wieder auszugleichen“ – plausibel erscheint. Auch die vorliegende quantitative Studie, die auf einem makroökonomischen Simulationsmodell für Deutschland basiert, kommt zu einem differenzierten Ergebnis: Eine langfristige Stärkung des Bruttonationaleinkommens pro Kopf entsteht durch eine höhere Geburtenrate nur dann, wenn die zusätzlich geborenen Kinder auch besser ausgebildet werden. Entscheidend für ein langfristiges Wachstum ist daher das zukünftige Humankapital. Darüber hinaus ist die Dauer der Übergangszeit, nach deren Ablauf sich eine höhere Geburtenrate in mehr und besser ausgebildeten Erwerbstätigen niederschlägt, die in die Renten- und anderen Sozialversicherungskassen einzahlen können, sehr lang. Von daher haben weitere Reformen unserer Sozialversicherungen nach wie vor höchste Priorität, da nur sie die sozialpolitischen Probleme einer alternden Babyboomgeneration kurz- und mittelfristig lösen können.

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Paper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 02025.

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Date of creation: 24 Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:02025

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  1. Fehr, Hans, 2000. " Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 419-43, June.
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  5. repec:mea:ivswpa:605 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," Discussion Papers 605, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
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Cited by:
  1. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," NBER Working Papers 11850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Konrad, Kai A. & Richter, Wolfram F., 2003. "Zur Berücksichtigung von Kindern bei umlagefinanzierter Alterssicherung," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2003-02, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  3. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 1326, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Niebuhr, Annekatrin & Stiller, Silvia, 2005. "Demographischer Wandel in Norddeutschland: Konsequenzen und Handlungsbedarf," HWWA Reports 250, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).

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