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Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?

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  • Axel Börsch-Supan

    ()

  • Alexander Ludwig

    ()

  • Joachim Winter

    ()
    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

Hilft eine höhere Geburtenrate, die Folgen der Alterung zu dämpfen? Die Ergebnisse der Wirtschaftstheorie sind keinesfalls eindeutig, auch wenn die Idee – „Wenn wir zu viele Alte haben, brauchen wir mehr Kinder, um dies wieder auszugleichen“ – plausibel erscheint. Auch die vorliegende quantitative Studie, die auf einem makroökonomischen Simulationsmodell für Deutschland basiert, kommt zu einem differenzierten Ergebnis: Eine langfristige Stärkung des Bruttonationaleinkommens pro Kopf entsteht durch eine höhere Geburtenrate nur dann, wenn die zusätzlich geborenen Kinder auch besser ausgebildet werden. Entscheidend für ein langfristiges Wachstum ist daher das zukünftige Humankapital. Darüber hinaus ist die Dauer der Übergangszeit, nach deren Ablauf sich eine höhere Geburtenrate in mehr und besser ausgebildeten Erwerbstätigen niederschlägt, die in die Renten- und anderen Sozialversicherungskassen einzahlen können, sehr lang. Von daher haben weitere Reformen unserer Sozialversicherungen nach wie vor höchste Priorität, da nur sie die sozialpolitischen Probleme einer alternden Babyboomgeneration kurz- und mittelfristig lösen können.

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Paper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 02025.

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Date of creation: 24 Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:02025

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  1. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  2. Börsch-Supan, Axel H. & Heiss, Florian & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2003. "Pension reform, capital markets and the rate of return," Munich Reprints in Economics 20200, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
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  6. repec:mea:ivswpa:605 is not listed on IDEAS
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  17. Georg Hirte, 2002. "Welfare and Macroeconomic Effects of the German Pension Acts of 1992 and 1999: A Dynamic CGE Study," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(1), pages 81-106, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Niebuhr, Annekatrin & Stiller, Silvia, 2005. "Demographischer Wandel in Norddeutschland: Konsequenzen und Handlungsbedarf," HWWA Reports 250, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  2. Kai A. Konrad & Wolfram F. Richter, 2005. "Zur Berücksichtigung von Kindern bei umlagefinanzierter Alterssicherung," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(1), pages 115-130, 02.
  3. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2008. "Fertility, mortality and the developed world's demographic transition," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 455-473.
  4. Axel B�rsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," DNB Working Papers 065, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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