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Outward FDI Effects on the Portuguese Trade Balance, 1996-2007

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Author Info

  • Miguel Fonseca

    ()
    (Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto)

  • António Mendonça

    ()
    (Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão / Universidade Técnica de Lisboa)

  • José Passos

    ()
    (Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão / Universidade Técnica de Lisboa)

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    Abstract

    Given the increased internationalisation of the Portuguese economy through outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), particularly on the Portuguese-speaking countries, our main objective is to discuss the empirical relationship between this outward FDI and trade. We use panel data analysis within a framework of gravity equations for exports and imports, with a sample composed by EU-15, U.S.A., Brazil, Angola, Japan and China, for the period 1996-2007. Our main conclusion is that the empirical evidence for Portugal is consistent with a substitution hypothesis between direct investment abroad and trade, and consequently we detect a negative trade balance effect with the majority of countries in our sample, excepting Angola and, in a lesser extension, Spain.

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    File URL: http://www.gee.min-economia.pt/RePEc/WorkingPapers/mf20.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação in its series GEE Papers with number 0020.

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    Length: 31 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2009
    Date of revision: Sep 2009
    Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0020

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    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Trade; Gravity Model; Portugal.;

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