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Time Series Properties and Stochastic Forecasts: Some Econometrics of Mortality from the Canadian Laboratory

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Author Info

  • Frank T. Denton
  • Christine H. Feaver
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee- Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning.

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File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/sedap/p/sedap45.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers with number 45.

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Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:45

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Keywords: mortality; life expectancy; stochastic forecasting;

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Cited by:
  1. Nan Li & Ronald Lee, 2005. "Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method," Demography, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 575-594, August.

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