IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mas/dpaper/2102.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Ownership of Oil, Democracy, and Iraq's Past, Present and Future

Author

Listed:
  • Weshah Razzak

    (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North)

Abstract

We show that the share of oil in real output is relatively large, nearly 60 percent. Effectively, the government of Iraq– not the people – owns and manages the oil wealth. This dependence on oil as the main income is also consistent with the rentier economy and the Resource Curse phenomenon. The interest elasticity of oil production with respect to global oil consumption is greater than one. This high dependence on oil as income and the sensitivity of oil production to global oil consumption would not be sustainable in the future, where there is a growing global aversion to hydrocarbon production and consumption. The developed countries aim at zero carbon by 2050. We show that the expected decline in global consumption of oil has an adverse effect on the Iraqi economy. We provide stress tests and produce dynamic stochastic projections from 2020-2050 under a number of adverse scenarios. A quick transfer of ownership of oil to the Iraqi people should guarantee a functional democracy and a better future for the Iraqis.

Suggested Citation

  • Weshah Razzak, 2021. "The Ownership of Oil, Democracy, and Iraq's Past, Present and Future," Discussion Papers 2102, School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:mas:dpaper:2102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econfin.massey.ac.nz/school/publications/discuss/2021/DP2102.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Iraq; oil share; private ownership; FM-OLS; VAR; Stress Testing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mas:dpaper:2102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Woods (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbmasnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.