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Cohort size and transitions into the labour market

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  • Duncan Roth

    (institute for Employment Research (IAB))

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect that the size of an individual’s labour-market entry cohort has on the subsequent duration of search for employment. Survival-analysis methods are applied to empirically assess this relationship using a sample of apprenticeship graduates who entered the German labour market between 1999 and 2012. The results suggest that apprentices from larger graduation cohorts take less time to find employment, but this effect appears to be significant only for a period of up to six months after graduation. These results therefore do not support the cohort-crowding hypothesis that members of larger cohorts face depressed labour-market outcomes. Moreover, there is no evidence that shorter search durations are the result of graduates being pushed into lower-quality employment. The finding that graduating as part of a larger cohort leads to shorter search durations is in line with those parts of the cohort-size literature that find larger youth cohorts being associated with lower unemployment rates. A possible explanation is that firms react to an anticipated increase in the number of graduates by creating jobs.

Suggested Citation

  • Duncan Roth, 2017. "Cohort size and transitions into the labour market," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201708, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201708
    as

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    File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/paper_2017/08-2017_roth.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Garloff, Alfred, 2016. "Side effects of the new German minimum wage on (un-)employment : first evidence from regional data," IAB-Discussion Paper 201631, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, March.
    3. Boll, Christina & Leppin, Julian & Rossen, Anja & Wolf, André, 2016. "Overeducation - New evidence for 25 European countries," IAB-Discussion Paper 201635, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
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    Cited by:

    1. Alena Bičáková & Guido Matias Cortes & Jacopo Mazza, 2021. "Caught in the Cycle: Economic Conditions at Enrolment and Labour Market Outcomes of College Graduates," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2383-2412.
    2. Ademola Obafemi Young, 2021. "Cohort Size and Unemployment Rate: New Insights from Nigeria," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 122-151, January.
    3. Konle-Seidl, Regina, 2017. "Retention and re-integration of older workers into the labour market: What works?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201717, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Kruppe, Thomas & Trepesch, Merlind, 2017. "Weiterbildungsbeteiligung in Deutschland : Auswertungen mit den Daten der Erwachsenenbefragung des Nationalen Bildungspanels "Bildung im Erwachsenenalter und lebenslanges Lernen"," IAB-Discussion Paper 201716, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Promberger, Markus, 2017. "Resilience among vulnerable households in Europe : Questions, concept, findings and implications," IAB-Discussion Paper 201712, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Dauth, Christine & Lang, Julia, 2017. "Should the unemployed care for the elderly? : The effect of subsidized occupational and further training in elderly care," IAB-Discussion Paper 201713, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survival analysis; entry conditions; cohort size; apprentices; search duration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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