Bayesian Estimation of a DSGE Model with Inventories
AbstractThis paper introduces inventories in an otherwise standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) of the business cycle. Firms accumulate inventories to facilitate sales, but face a cost of doing so in terms of costly storage of intermediate goods. The paper’s main contribution is to present a DSGE model with inventories that is estimated using Bayesian methods. Based on U.S. data we show that accounting for inventory dynamics has a significant impact on parameter estimates and impulse responses. Our analysis also reveals that the contribution of structural shocks to variations in the observable variables changes significantly when we allow for inventories. Moreover, we find that inventories enter the Phillips curve as an additional and significant driving variable of inflation and make the inflation process less backward-looking.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201123.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Inventories; Bayesian Estimation; DSGE model; Business Cycles;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-05-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2011-05-30 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-ORE-2011-05-30 (Operations Research)
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