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Revisiting the Battle of Midway: A counterfactual analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Anelí Bongers

    (Department of Economics, University of Málaga)

  • José L. Torres

    (Department of Economics, University of Málaga)

Abstract

This paper uses a stochastic salvo combat model to study the Battle of Midway. The parameters of the model are calibrated accordingly to the historical outcome and thus, the model can be used to study alternative scenarios. Contrary to the common wisdom that the result of the Battle was an "incredible" American victory, the model shows that the probability for Japanese to win were very low and indeed close to zero. We carry on four alternative counterfactual analyses: (i) All launched American attack aircraft reach to the Japanese carriers; ii) An additional Japanese carrier; iii) Not to wait to launch Japanese attack aircraft; and iv) American carriers spotted earlier. Including the most favorable scenario for the Japanese, the Battle of Midway remains an American victory.

Suggested Citation

  • Anelí Bongers & José L. Torres, 2017. "Revisiting the Battle of Midway: A counterfactual analysis," Working Papers 2017-01, Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:mal:wpaper:2017-1
    as

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    File URL: https://theeconomics.uma.es/malagawpseries/Papers/METCwp2017-1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wayne P. Hughes, 1995. "A salvo model of warships in missile combat used to evaluate their staying power," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 267-289, March.
    2. David Connors & Michael J. Armstrong & John Bonnett, 2015. "A Counterfactual Study of the Charge of the Light Brigade," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 80-89, June.
    3. Michael J Armstrong, 2014. "The salvo combat model with a sequential exchange of fire," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 65(10), pages 1593-1601, October.
    4. Michael J. Armstrong, 2005. "A Stochastic Salvo Model for Naval Surface Combat," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 830-841, October.
    5. Niall MacKay & Christopher Price & A. Jamie Wood, 2016. "Weighing the fog of war: Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the Battle of the Dogger Bank," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 80-91, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic salvo combat model; Battle of Midway; Monte Carlo simulation; Counterfactual analysis;
    All these keywords.

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