Towards Decoding Currency Volatilities
AbstractThis study contributes, on the basis of economic theory, to an explanation of exchange rate volatilities for a large number of currencies. We relate daily changes in GARCH(1,1) volatilities of exchange rates to the volatility changes of several of their presumed fundamental economic determinants. The use of highfrequency data limits the choice of the explanatory economic variables that can be included. The first differences of GARCH(1,1) volatilities of share and bond price indices proxy for wealth uncertainty and the latter, in addition, for interest rate variability. Likewise, first differences of the gold price volatility, as an additional determinant, are related to exchange rate volatilities of two commodity currencies in the sample. The estimates produce coefficients with the expected signs and statistical significance.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Macquarie University, Department of Economics in its series Research Papers with number 0405.
Length: 26 pages.
Date of creation: Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Exchange rate volatilities; volatility relationships; GARCH modelling;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-05-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-05-20 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FMK-2006-05-20 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-IFN-2006-05-20 (International Finance)
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