IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lvl/mpiacr/2020-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange-Rate Policy in a Dollarized Economy: Implications for Growth and Employment in Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Cicowiez Author-Name: Carlos Gustavo Machicado Author-Name: Beatriz Muriel Author-Name: Alejandro Herrera Jiménez Author-Name: Alejandra Goytia

Abstract

We analyzed the impact of currency devaluation on the Bolivian economy, employing a dynamic and extended version of the PEP 1-1 standard model to simulate effects impact on both the main macroeconomic aggregates and the financial stocks and flows of economic agents. We built a new Financial Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2014 and calibrated the model to it. Besides simulating a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate, we also analyzed a policy-response scenario, an external-shock scenario, and a gradual-devaluation scenario. In the policy-response scenario, devaluation was accompanied by a reduction in government expenses (fiscal adjustment); in the external-shock scenario, devaluation came with an increase in the export price of gas (main export commodity); and, in the gradual-devaluation scenario, the exchange-rate policy relaxed gradually. The external-shock scenario dominated the other scenarios in terms of higher average growth and less average unemployment. The fiscal-adjustment scenario, however, dominated in terms of inflation, though it implied an inflationary shock in 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Cicowiez Author-Name: Carlos Gustavo Machicado Author-Name: Beatriz Muriel Author-Name: Alejandro Herrera Jiménez Author-Name: Alejandra Goytia, 2020. "Exchange-Rate Policy in a Dollarized Economy: Implications for Growth and Employment in Bolivia," Working Papers MPIA 2020-08, PEP-MPIA.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2020-08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://portal.pep-net.org/document/download/34637
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange policy; macroeconomic policy; CGE modelling; Bolivia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2020-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Manuel Paradis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cdvlvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.