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Worldwide equity Risk Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • David Ardia
  • Lennart F. Hoogerheide

Abstract

Various GARCH models are applied to daily returns of more than 1200 constituents of major stock indices worldwide. The value-at-risk forecast performance is investigated for different markets and industries, considering the test for correct conditional coverage using the false discovery rate (FDR) methodology. For most of the markets and industries we find the same two conclusions. First, an asymmetric GARCH specification is essential when forecasting the 95% value-at-risk. Second, for both the 95% and 99% value-at-risk it is crucial that the innovations’ distribution is fat-tailed (e.g., Student-t or – even better – a non-parametric kernel density estimate). Then we discuss two applications. First, we use normal Entropy Pooling to estimate a market distribution consistent with the CAPM equilibrium, which improves on the “implied returns” a-la-Black and Litterman (1990) and can be used as the starting point for portfolio construction. Second, we use normal Entropy Pooling to process ranking signals for alpha-generation.

Suggested Citation

  • David Ardia & Lennart F. Hoogerheide, 2013. "Worldwide equity Risk Prediction," Cahiers de recherche 1312, CIRPEE.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1312
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    File URL: http://www.cirpee.org/fileadmin/documents/Cahiers_2013/CIRPEE13-12.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Lawson, Aidan, 2021. "United Kingdom Asset Resolution Limited (UKAR)," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 3(2), pages 641-664, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH; value-at-risk; equity; worldwide; false discovery rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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