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CEPAC price forecasting in auctions at “Operacao Urbana Consorciada Agua Espraiada”: methodology and results (2008/2009)

Author

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  • Eduardo Rottmann
  • Heloisa Proença
  • Francisco Regis Perez

Abstract

Since its implementation, in 2004, development rights granting inside borders of “Operacao Urbana Consorciada Agua Espraida” (a 500 hectare region at SW of Sao Paulo City) is done through CEPAC (“Certificado de Potencial Adicional de Cosntrucao”, or “Additional Development Rights Certificate”) acquisition, which are offered through public auctions by EMURB (“Empresa Municipal de Urbanizacao”, the SP City Urban Development Company). These certificates, issued by Banco do Brasil (BB) are stock market tradable and regulated by CVM (the Brazilian SEC). Among these regulations, a comprehensive marketability study is required from both EMURB and BB. For this purpose, a price forecasting methodology was developed for Banco do Brasil, based on primary and secondary market and development rights demand data, conjugating DCF and Montecarlo analyses. Results obtained, for both pre and post international crisis scenarios, were compared with pricing levels set at EMURB’s study, allowing the establishment of its certainty degree.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Rottmann & Heloisa Proença & Francisco Regis Perez, 2009. "CEPAC price forecasting in auctions at “Operacao Urbana Consorciada Agua Espraiada”: methodology and results (2008/2009)," LARES lares2009_172-180-1-sp, Latin American Real Estate Society (LARES).
    • Handle: RePEc:lre:wpaper:lares2009_172-180-1-sp
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cepac; Operacao Urbana Agua Espraiada; price forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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