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A Quantitative Theory of Political Transitions

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  • Buchheim, Lukas
  • Ulbricht, Robert

Abstract

We develop a quantitative theory of repeated political transitions driven by revolts and reforms. In the model, the beliefs of disenfranchised citizens play a key role in determining revolutionary pressure, which in interaction with preemptive reforms determine regime dynamics. We study the quantitative implications of the model by fitting it to data on the universe of political regimes existing between 1946 and 2010. The estimated model generates a process of political transitions that looks remarkably close to the data, replicating the empirical shape of transition hazards, the frequency of revolts relative to reforms, the distribution of newly established regime types after revolts and reforms, and the unconditional distribution over regime types.

Suggested Citation

  • Buchheim, Lukas & Ulbricht, Robert, 2020. "A Quantitative Theory of Political Transitions," Munich Reprints in Economics 84774, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:84774
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    Cited by:

    1. Boris Ginzburg & José-Alberto Guerra, 2021. "Guns, pets, and strikes: an experiment on identity and political action," Documentos CEDE 19932, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    2. Chris Bidner & Shirleen Manzur, 2022. "A Theory of Illiberal Democracy and Political Transitions," Discussion Papers dp22-06, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    3. Christopher A. Hartwell & Paul M. Vaaler, 2023. "The Price of Empire: Unrest Location and Sovereign Risk in Tsarist Russia," Papers 2309.06885, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    4. Gabriele Gratton & Barton E Lee, 2024. "Liberty, Security, and Accountability: The Rise and Fall of Illiberal Democracies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 340-371.
    5. Gabriele Gratton & Barton E. Lee, 2020. "Liberty, Security, and Accountability: The Rise and Fall of Illiberal Democracies," Discussion Papers 2020-13, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

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