A Financial Sector Balance Approach and the Cyclical Dynamics of the U.S. Economy
AbstractThis paper investigates the relationship between asset markets and business cycles with regard to the United States economy. We consider the Goldman Sachs approach (2003) developed to study the dynamics of financial balances. By means of a small econometric model we find that asset market dynamics are fundamental to determining the long-run financial sector balance dynamics. The gap between long-run equilibrium values and the actual values of the financial balances help to explain the cyclical path of the economy. Among all financial sectors balances, the financing gap in the corporate sector shows a leading effect on business cycles, in a Minskyan spirit. The last results appear innovative with respect to Goldman Sachs's findings. Furthermore, our econometric results are robust and quite stable.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Levy Economics Institute in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number wp_576.
Date of creation: Sep 2009
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-09-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2009-09-19 (Business Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2009-09-19 (Macroeconomics)
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