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Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Models: An Application to the UK Economy

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  • Anthony Garratt
  • Kevin Lee

    ()

  • M Hashem Peseran
  • Yongcheol Shin

Abstract

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macro-economic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macro- econometric model, are presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England’s target range and that recession will be avoided, both as separate single events and jointly. The probability forecasts are also used to provide insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons.

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File URL: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/econ00-4.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 00/4.

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Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:00/4

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Related research

Keywords: Probability Forecasting; Long Run Structural VARs; Macroeconomic Modelling; Probability Forecasts of Inflation; Interest Rates and Output Growth;

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