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Evaluations prospective et réstrospective d'allocations scolaires conditionnées au Mexique

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Gignoux Jérémie ()

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Abstract

Cette étude examine dans quelle mesure les estimations rétrospectives (ex-ante) des effets du revenu familial sur la scolarisation et le travail des enfants permettent de faire des prévisions des impacts des programmes d’allocations scolaires conditionnées dans les pays en développement. Nous utilisons les données d’une expérience sociale d’évaluation du programme mexicain Progresa. Nous comparons les impacts estimés par l’évaluation prospective (ex-post) aux prévisions basées sur l’estimation ex-ante des effets d’un programme de transferts de revenus sur la scolarisation et la participation au travail des enfants. L’estimation des effets du revenu familial est basée sur une méthode instrumentale utilisant les biens possédés et les caractéristiques du logement comme indicateurs du revenu permanent du ménage. Nos résultats indiquent que l’évaluation ex-ante mesure des impacts du même ordre de grandeur que ceux mesurés avec les données expérimentales. Ceci tend à valider les méthodes de prévision ex-ante basées sur des estimateurs à variables instrumentales.

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Paper provided by Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquee, INRA in its series Research Unit Working Papers with number 0501.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:lea:leawpi:0501

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